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Posted 7:39 PM by Tevita

Swine flu science: Who's writing what on the virus

1 May 2009

From : SciDev

C. S. Goldsmith and A. Balish, CDC
As swine flu spreads around the globe, scientists are seeking to build their understanding of the virus — particularly the likelihood that it will mutate. From the wealth of information in the media, SciDev.Net has selected some of the best articles considering the science behind swine flu.

According to Wendy Barclay — professor of influenza virology at the UK-based Imperial College London — swine flu, now known as A(H1N1), is a 'triple reassortment' virus. It is made up of segments from human, swine and avian viruses, Barclay told New Scientist in an expert analysis.

Speaking to Science for an article on swine flu mutation, Kennedy Shortridge — a virologist at the University of Hong Kong — warned that as the virus spreads further this mixture is likely to increase: "… the farther the virus spreads, the more chance it will mix, or reassort, with other flu viruses in circulation and turn into something more lethal".

He said that there are human strains of the virus in areas that are resistant to the current treatment Tamiflu and urged the sequencing of as many viral samples as possible to help predict changes in the virus.

In an attempt to predict the virus's spread, Ira Longini and colleagues at the US-based University of Washington are trying to acquire as much data as possible on the virus's basic reproductive number, R0, a variable that reveals the number of new infections caused by each infected person. Longini told Science in the same article that this is the key factor in determining the virus's spread.

Scientists are also eager to find out "whether a virus must mutate to move from pigs to humans and whether, as is the case with bird flu in humans, a specific mutation makes it more virulent," Science reports.

A strategy to postpone the emergence of resistance is to "hold off using your primary drug until the cumulative number of cases reaches a sufficiently high number," says Joseph Wu of the University of Hong Kong. He told New Scientist that stockpiling just one drug would encourage resistance.

One mystery is the virus's origins.

UK newspaper The Guardian reports that UN scientists are trying to determine whether La Gloria, Mexico, is the virus's source. The village is suspected because samples acquired from a five-year-old there provide the earliest confirmed case of the disease. Other theories include migrant workers bringing the virus to Mexico from California, or that the earliest source is a 39-year-old woman in the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca.

Scientists are also investigating why sufferers outside Mexico have experienced comparatively mild symptoms, Barclay told New Scientist. As yet there is no evidence that the genetic makeup of the Mexican strains differ from those in the United States, for example, says Barclay.

BBC Online reports that preliminary analysis of the virus suggests that it is "a fairly mild strain". In a summary of what is known about swine flu, scientists say further mutation is required to cause mass deaths, but future evolution of the virus remains unknown. UK scientists will begin work today (1 May) on samples of the virus sent from the US. The research is essential in order to work out the structure of the virus, its origins and its propensity to spread.

Barclay told BBC Online that "initial indications suggest there is nothing about the genetic makeup of the new virus which is a cause for particular concern".

Preliminary "guesswork" has found that H1N1 attaches itself to the upper respiratory tract, spreading easily via coughing and sneezing but causing only mild infection. This is unlike the H5N1 avian influenza virus, which binds further down in the lungs and causes more severe illness, even though human transmission is rare.

But it will take "weeks and months of biological analysis" to fully determine H1N1's potential, reports BBC Online.



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Balish, CDC As swine flu spreads around the globe, scientists are seeking to build their understanding of the virus — particularly the likelihood that it will mutate. From the wealth of information in the media, SciDev.Net has selected some of the best articles considering the science behind swine flu. According to Wendy Barclay — professor of influenza virology at the UK-based Imperial College London — swine flu, now known as A(H1N1), is a 'triple reassortment' virus. It is made up of segments from human, swine and avian viruses, Barclay told New Scientist in an expert analysis. Speaking to Science for an article on swine flu mutation, Kennedy Shortridge — a virologist at the University of Hong Kong — warned that as the virus spreads further this mixture is likely to increase: "… the farther the virus spreads, the more chance it will mix, or reassort, with other flu viruses in circulation and turn into something more lethal". He said that there are human strains of the virus in areas that are resistant to the current treatment Tamiflu and urged the sequencing of as many viral samples as possible to help predict changes in the virus. In an attempt to predict the virus's spread, Ira Longini and colleagues at the US-based University of Washington are trying to acquire as much data as possible on the virus's basic reproductive number, R0, a variable that reveals the number of new infections caused by each infected person. Longini told Science in the same article that this is the key factor in determining the virus's spread. Scientists are also eager to find out "whether a virus must mutate to move from pigs to humans and whether, as is the case with bird flu in humans, a specific mutation makes it more virulent," Science reports. A strategy to postpone the emergence of resistance is to "hold off using your primary drug until the cumulative number of cases reaches a sufficiently high number," says Joseph Wu of the University of Hong Kong. He told New Scientist that stockpiling just one drug would encourage resistance. One mystery is the virus's origins. UK newspaper The Guardian reports that UN scientists are trying to determine whether La Gloria, Mexico, is the virus's source. The village is suspected because samples acquired from a five-year-old there provide the earliest confirmed case of the disease. Other theories include migrant workers bringing the virus to Mexico from California, or that the earliest source is a 39-year-old woman in the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca. Scientists are also investigating why sufferers outside Mexico have experienced comparatively mild symptoms, Barclay told New Scientist. As yet there is no evidence that the genetic makeup of the Mexican strains differ from those in the United States, for example, says Barclay. BBC Online reports that preliminary analysis of the virus suggests that it is "a fairly mild strain". In a summary of what is known about swine flu, scientists say further mutation is required to cause mass deaths, but future evolution of the virus remains unknown. UK scientists will begin work today (1 May) on samples of the virus sent from the US. The research is essential in order to work out the structure of the virus, its origins and its propensity to spread. Barclay told BBC Online that "initial indications suggest there is nothing about the genetic makeup of the new virus which is a cause for particular concern". Preliminary "guesswork" has found that H1N1 attaches itself to the upper respiratory tract, spreading easily via coughing and sneezing but causing only mild infection. This is unlike the H5N1 avian influenza virus, which binds further down in the lungs and causes more severe illness, even though human transmission is rare. But it will take "weeks and months of biological analysis" to fully determine H1N1's potential, reports BBC Online. * Comments: Post a Comment	Archive October 2002 November 2002 December 2002 January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 January 2010 RSS Feed Alternative feed Contact Tevita Something new: Agrobiodiversity Weblog: For discussions of conservation and sustainable use of the genetic resources of crops, livestock and their wild relatives. 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